Propose the move you are considering — a new holding, a different size, a sale — and read what it does to the risk you already carry, measured on your own price history. Nothing is executed and nothing is recommended.
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Descriptive analysis — no advice, no price calls, nothing executed.
SPY 60 / IEF 40, on daily closes from January 2006. Its risk rests on almost one thing — and it still came through every crisis on record. Both are true, which is why nothing here is averaged into a single verdict.
Two holdings. One of them is doing almost all the moving — and that has not stopped it working.
Counted properly, a 60/40 is barely more than a single bet: the bonds are small enough, and calm enough, that the equity side sets the weather. A page that scored it out of ten would have to choose which half of that sentence to tell you. This one tells you both and lets them disagree.
A global five-fund book returned 8.3% a year over its record. Held for any single year inside it, the answer ran from −34.4% to +53.8%, and 15% of those years lost money. The average is arithmetic on the ends; almost nobody lives the ends.
Add a fund that only lists from 2014 and your whole record starts there — two of seven crises become unmeasurable, including 2008. We name the holding responsible and say where the record would reach without it, rather than showing five green rows and no 2008.
A position that is 25% of your money can be 45% of what moves the portfolio. Every holding gets both numbers and the gap between them, plus what sits underneath your funds — the same company often arrives by more than one route.
It tests its own optimiser on money the optimiser had not seen — and shows you the result either way.
Fitting a portfolio to its own history always looks good; the question is what happens when you hold the answer forward. So the allocation is fitted on the years before each decision, held for the next twelve months, and refitted — eighteen times over on the book below. Sometimes it beats splitting evenly. Sometimes it does not. You are shown which, on your own holdings, instead of an allocation with no track record attached.
Return per unit of risk on money neither had seen when it chose. On this book the fitted allocation came out ahead; on others in testing it lost to equal weight outright. It rebuilt 20% of the portfolio at every refit, which is itself worth knowing.
Build from familiar indices and ETFs across 19 markets in eight currencies, propose a change, and read the trade-off before you commit to it.
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